Quantitative Risk Analysis

About Course 

• Learn and practice the main principles and techniques in quantitative risk analysis (QRA);
• Understand how to employ QRA to better understand risk and uncertainty and improve decision-making;
• Learn to work with risk analysis modeling environments (in this case @RISK, Risk Solver or Crystal Ball with Excel, but the lessons apply equally well to other modeling environments);
• Learn how to how to conduct accurate and effective quantitative risk analysis, including best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate distribution, using data and expert opinion, and avoiding common mistakes, while also discussing how to use QRA in decision-making;
• Gain expert insight from EpiX Analytics’ vast experience consulting to large and small organizations worldwide.

Objectives:
Upon Completion of the course, you will be able to:
• Build on your knowledge of qualitative hazard evaluation methods to discover when and how to quantify the results
• Derive a clearer understanding of risks associated with your processes
• Learn to distinguish between cost-effective and costly solutions for your facility's risk or reliability concerns
• Gain a clear understanding of the most critical aspects of your processes
• Learn to develop fault trees and event trees and also to solve fault trees quantitatively
WHO SHOULD ATTEND
Anyone in business, government and science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis
Such as professionals needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas including, but not limited to, finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering, six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.



Outline:
DAY  1

:Introduction to risk management

 Incidents and drivers for safety regulations.

 Regulatory framework and application within the oil and gas industry

 Fundamental concepts of risk and risk management

 Role of QRA in overall risk management

 Risk measures and decision criteria

DAY 2

: Methodology and terminology

 Introduction to safety-related QRA

 Using event trees to identify accident scenarios

 Assessing frequencies

 Consequence analysis including physical consequence and fatality assessment

 QRA data sources

 Using data to perform risk analysis (frequency and fatality)

 Uncertainty and sensitivity studies

DAY 3

 ALARP demonstration, risk reduction and cost benefit analysis

 Key concepts including risk criteria and risk tolerability

 ALARP principle and the concept of gross disproportionality

 ALARP demonstration including cost benefit analysis

 Corporate standards and target levels of safety

 Applying QRA to demonstrate tolerability and select costeffective risk reduction measures

DAY 4:

Communication of QRA

 Using QRA results beyond the safety case regime as an input to safety related and other projects decisions

 How to effectively communicate QRA and safety case to improve understanding of risks and application of risk measures

Common mistakes and how to prevent them

DAY 5 : 
Introduction to analyzing and using data for risk analysis
• Statistical techniques
• Why we need uncertainty distributions not confidence intervals in risk analysis
• Creating uncertainty distributions with standard Classical Statistical tests
o t-tests, z-tests, Chi-squared tests
o Examples of estimation of population mean and standard deviation
• The Bootstrap to include uncertainty
• The use of Bayesian Statistics in risk analysis

Certificates

A Certificate of Completion will be issued to those who attend & successfully complete the programme.

Schedule

  08:30 – 10:15 First Session

 10:15 – 10:30 Coffee Break

10:30 – 12:15 Second Session

 12:15 – 12:30 Coffee Break

12:30 – 14:00 Third Session

 14:00 – 15:00 Lunch

 Fees

 The Fee for the seminar, including instruction materials, documentation, lunch, coffee/tea breaks & snack is: